Thursday, March 31, 2011

Bloody Baseball

Well it's that time of the year again. The menstrual cycle of sports is upon us. Major League Baseball kicks off it's summer long doldrums today, boring us with excruciating SportsCenter highlights and blabber. Choking us with "amazing plays" and ferocious pitching stats, and all the other shit that makes baseball so pathetic.

With the speed the world moves at these days, with 4 going on 14G networks to shuttle mindless amounts of mostly useless information back and forth between iPhones, laptops and other online gadgets, it's amazing that anybody has the time to sit around eating Cracker Jack and swatting flies for three hours; waiting longer between pitches than it takes to download a feature length film to you iPad, that ultimately just ends up in the glove of  a catcher anyway. Go do that at home with your son for ten minutes and call it a day.

How can someone who spends their day getting all the information they need, from all over the world, faster than Super Man can think, sit down at the end of the day and enjoy something that moves slower than a lazy snail on ludes? Hell, we can't even wait for an erection in this country, how are we supposed to wait for someone to cross the plate?

Well, the answer is, they can't. Technology moves faster than baseball. Nobody has time to wait for their pitch anymore.

It's no surprise that over the past ten years Little League registrations have dropped by about 20% per year, while Hockey, basketball, football and Lacrosse no less, have all increased. It's all about speed. Kids don't want to sit in the outfield daydreaming in a hot sun all day when they can be playing something that moves faster; something like their Xbox or Play Station.

Pretty soon baseball will end up being outsourced to the Dominican Republic. The Santiago Padres have a nice, and let's be honest, more fitting ring to it.

How long until baseball goes the way of the horse and buggy; played only in small, isolated communities that don't believe in electricity or Wi-Fi? How long before the talent pool is so diluted that teams will have to choose captains and pick sides? Twenty years maybe?

Not soon enough I say.





Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Breaking down the Dog


Why is it that so many "Big Six" conference teams make the NCAA Tournament each year, only to be upset early and often by Mid-Major teams from conferences most people filling out a bracket have never heard of?

Here's my thought as to why there are more and more upsets in the NCAA Tournament each year. And it's not so much a thought as it is pure fact.

Let's start this commentary out here...

Kentucky lost all five starters to the NBA draft last year. All underclassmen, and all drafted in the first round. So with five NBA players on the team last year, surely they must have won the NCAA Tournament, right?

Not.

A close loss in the Championship game then?

Uh, no.

In fact, they didn't even make it to the Final Four - with all that NBA talent. How is that possible?

Simply put, it comes down to experience. They just didn't have enough of it in crunch time, when it mattered most.

The biggest upset of the first round... Hell, of the entire tourney, was Morehead State taking down one of the Big East Bad Boys in Louisville. Brackets were busted and heads were scratched  from coast to coast with that one. Really? Morehead State from... what conference was that again?

Do you think it mattered that Morehead State started ALL Junior's and Seniors? Kids that have played together for three or four years? Getting to know and trust in each teammates given talent and abilities on the floor? Maybe, just maybe confidence in each other played a role.

Why was this so shocking an upset? Because really, how much media attention is focused on these piddling little Mid-Major nobodies?

But that's just a coincidence, right? Let's look at a couple other Sweet Sixteen surprises.

Richmond, a number 12 seed is packed with Juniors and Seniors, surrounding an uber-talented Freshman. Still playing.

VCU, an 11 seed, had to play into this tournament just to prove it belonged, and now finds itself in the Sweet Sixteen. What makes up their top scorers and rebounders? Four Seniors and a Junior.

Of course that doesn't explain George Mason, who starts all upperclassmen beating, Villanova sporting a good mix of all classes in the first round, but that's what makes it a true upset.

The fact is, while all the super-talented players around the country are signing on with the big game schools, in the big name conferences, who get all the big time TV deals, just to get noticed for the draft they plan on entering after their Freshman and Sophomore years, it's the pretty good to very talented kids who take a scholarship at the smaller schools and play it out for four years. They aren't guaranteed first round money, if any round at all. They play for a school they plan on graduating and getting a degree from. 

So Kentucky had to restock with another handful of talented one-and-done freshman, and they are back in the Sweet Sixteen. Probably overlooked by most was their first-round two point squeaker over Princeton, out of the mighty Ivy League. A team they very easily could have lost to. But a team that also started predominately Junior's and Seniors, with a Freshman and Sophomore thrown in.

On the other hand, the number one seed overall  is blowing through this tournament like it should be. Ohio State has Seven Junior's or Senior's on  the team, and only four Freshman. One of those Freshman leads the team in every formidable stat, but he's surrounded by players who have three or four years experience playing together.

But here's the bottom line...

If I was a betting man, I would  say Kentucky and their freshmen will stay no where close to the 6 points they are getting from Ohio State on Friday night. I might'a even dropped a larger than small fortune on the game, gladly giving up a measly 6 points. Ya know, if I was a betting man.

...but, I'm not a betting man.


Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Dogging it in the NCAA Tourney

Upsets are called upsets for a reason. They are not supposed to win. But as we find out year after year in the NCAA Tournament, that's just not the case. And there's no stopping it either. Upsets are happening weather you're on board or not, so the best you can do is hope to be on the right ship when it leaves the dock.

There are ways however, to at least improve your odds of picking correctly. There are ways to give yourself a better edge when mucking over which dog will win, and which dog will bust your bracket. Hopefully the latter isn't the case, unless you're picking the UC Santa Barbara Goucho's to make a final four run. The idea is to pick an underdog without having that dog bite you in the ass. That happens when the upset you picked not only loses, but the team you picked against ends up making a nice run through it's region.

As you probably already know, a number 16 seed has never beaten a number 1 seed in the history of the tourney. So don't even bother trying that one. And a number 15 seed has only shocked a 2 seed four times. So again, don't waste an upset pick here. It could happen, but there is no sense in blowing your bracket for those odds. In fact, don't even think about picking an upset seed lower than a 14 over a 3 seed, and only then if the match-up looks juicy enough.

You wont usually find many 14 seeds worthy of an upset pick in your pool, but every now and then one sneaks in... And this happens to be one of those years.

Also, there really is no such thing as an upset when an 8 and 9 seed play. Technically an upset is the team who Vegas has favored to win, not where the NCAA Selection Committee slates them. So it is fairly common for an 9 seed to be favored over an 8 seed, and even an occasional 10 over a 7.

It's also pretty common for at least one 12 seed to knock off a 5 seed each year, so that is a great place to start looking for your pup.

Here's some tips on how to tell if the match-up has the potential for an upset.

How is the guard play?
What are the mix of the starters? All Seniors or Freshman?
Do they score over 70 points per game consistently?
How many players have tournament experience?
Does the coach have any tournament experience, and how did he fair when he was there?
How good is the team they are planning to upset?
What does Vegas think?

These are the match-ups with potential upsets:

Florida State #10 vs. Texas A&M #7
Penn State #10 vs. Temple #7
Michigan State #10 vs. UCLA #7
Georgia #10 vs. Washington #7

Gonzaga #11 vs. St. John's #6
Missouri #11 vs. Cincinnati #6
Marquette #11 vs. Xavier #6
VCU / USC #11 vs. Georgetown #6

Clemson #12 vs. West Virginia #5
Richmond #12 vs. Vanderbilt #5
Memphis #12 vs. Arizona #5
Richmond #12 vs. Vanderbilt #5

Princeton #13 vs. Kentucky #4
Belmont #13 vs. Wisconsin #4
Oakland #13 vs. Texas #4
Morehead State #13 vs. Louisville #4

Wofford #14 vs. Brigham Young #3
Bucknell #14 vs. Connecticut #3
St. Peter's #14 vs. Purdue #3
Indiana State #14 vs. Syracuse #3


Here are the potential dog teams that averaging over 70 points per game:

Gonzaga: 76.7
Missouri: 81.4
Marquette: 76.1
VCU: 71.5
Richmond: 70.2
Belmont: 80.4
Oakland: 85.6

Wofford: 73.8
Bucknell: 7.8

Note, Wofford and Bucknell are #14 seeds, but both have a legitimate chance of an upset. Particularly Wofford.

Consider this:

Wofford is returning all five starters from last year. A team that, as a 13 seed last year went to the NCAA tourney and came within two points of upsetting #4 Wisconsin.

They also have three players who shoot the three-ball well, at a combined .407 clip.

Oh, and just to add some meat to that juice, they are playing a BYU team that has lost two of their last three games after dismissing starting Forward Brandon Davies from the team for an "honor code violation". Davies was the leading rebounder and second in points to Fredette.

It's tough to pick against the second leading scorer in the country and all around fantastic player in Jimmer Fredette, but if you don't think BYU is going to go very far, you might consider looking like a Tournament God to everyone who sees your Wofford upset.

What was that "honor code violation" Davies broke you ask? Did he steal laptops, get a DUI, or beat up his girlfriend? Nope. His violation was for admitting he had premarital sex with his girlfriend.

Those silly Mormons.




Tuesday, March 15, 2011

The Maddening Madness of March - How to win your pool

Every sports outlet in the country, online or in print, is overflowing with March Madness. Brackets, predictions, stats, records and the like, all at your fingertips. From coaches, ex-coaches, players and ex-players, sports writers and commentators, telling you who to pick, who's going to upset who, and how to keep your bracket from imploding on you in the first week.

So why would you want to read about it here? Why take my advice?

Because unlike them, I actually have to dig into my wallet and fork over the twenty to fifty dollar entry fees it takes to play this, the greatest tournament on Earth. I also don't get paid for playing it safe and picking Ohio State to win it all, just so I don't make my network look bad.

Sure, Ohio State is the odds on favorite to win the National title, and there's a pretty good chance that they will win. So why not pick them?

Because it's likely that 40% of your pool-mates also picked Ohio State to win it all. And if they do, good luck coming up with enough points to pull ahead of them before the Championship game.

Nope. Here is what you need to do to give yourself a chance to win the money, prize or bragging rights. Whatever it is you're playing for.

Find a team that is good enough to beat anyone on any given night; SIX times. And no, Princeton is not one of those teams.

The Big East is highly considered the best conference in the country, and have eleven teams representing in the tournament. They have played against the best competition all year long. Unfortunately, they always tend to beat each other up along the grueling way.

The Big Ten and Big Twelve are also highly rated conferences and each have a few teams capable of beating anyone on a given night.

Stay as far away from the Pac-10, the SEC (except Kentucky) and Mid Majors as you can. While they are all good for first and second round upsets, don't get Bracket Buster happy and put Oakland into your final four... or final eight for that matter. And don't look at Florida as a deserving number two seed either. Like San Diego State, they will be bowing out of this tourney very early. As soon as this weekend perhaps.

Look for teams with exceptional guard play. They can carry your team far and keep them alive late in the game.

The main goal here is to pick a team that is capable and has a chance of winning it all. Not necessarily a great chance, but with enough talent and experience to squeak out a couple of tough ones. Teams that seem to be peaking at the right time. Nobody is peaking more than Connecticut right now after their incredible run through the Big East Tournament, but you still need to keep in mind that they lost four out of five games before that exciting run.

Kentucky is a very young team. All five starters were drafted to the NBA last year, but they do have plenty of talent and are peaking at the right time as well, and looking pronominal in doing so.

You also need to keep in mind the people in which your pool is being filled. Pick a team outside your geographical area if possible. If you are in the Southwest, you might be in Longhorn country and end up with an exceeding amount of pool members picking Texas.

Here is a short list of teams I believe are capable of winning it all. Try getting as many of these into your final eight and final four, and you should be in good shape by the end of the tournament.

Most people will be taking Ohio State and Kansas to win it all, with a fair amount on Texas and Pitt. If you go with these schools, you'll run the risk of getting behind in points and not being able to catch up. But, that's your call. You also get to look like a genius when you're the only one picking Louisville to win the title... and they do!

Big East
Pittsburgh
Louisville
Connecticut
Notre Dame

Big Ten
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin

Big 12
Kansas
Texas
Texas A&M
Kansas St

ACC
Duke
North Carolina

SEC
Kentucky


Good luck in your pools, and be sure to come back and criticize me if I'm wrong. Or mad props me if I'm right.




Friday, March 11, 2011

If I was a betting man...

Betting on sports turns every game into Super Bowl Sunday, no matter which sport it is. I could watch Chess all day, if I could bet on it. And it would be more fun than a Vegas strip club. And yes, I know, Chess isn't a sport, but that's besides the point.

Kansas got a big scare yesterday when they eeked out a one point victory over an Oklahoma State team they were 14.5 point favorites to. They play a decent Colorado team tonight that they already beat twice this year. One time in a close game, the other a blowout.

I don't think Kansas wants another scare like yesterday. They would much rather stay on the top line of next weeks big tourney, and a loss here could jeopardize that. Twelve points is a big number for conference rivals, but I am going to lay that and hope it's not going to be all that close.

UConn is the hottest team in the country right now. They come off two huge wins in two days and are coming into this quarter final match-up against heated rival Syracuse with the most confidence they've had since their back-to-back wins against Michigan St. and Kentucky in the preseason Maui Invitational. A tournament in which they won by the way.

However, this is Syracuse we're talking about, and they are a damn fine team. They certainly wont make this game easy. That's not how these two teams roll. The last time they met in the Big East tournament was last years six overtime thriller in which the Orange won. This should be a very good, tight game, and it wouldn't surprise me if the final shot decided the game.

The Pac-10 regular season champ this year was Arizona. The top team in the league shouldn't be getting points from the fifth best, even if they are playing in their house. This isn't a regular season game, this is the Pac-10 tournament. I smell trap, and always seem to stumble into them, so I'm not about to stop now.


3 Star plays
Kansas -12
Notre Dame -1

2 Star play
Arizona +1

1 Star play
UConn +3.5

...but I'm not a betting man.

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Where's the Love?

Did you read about Kevin Love's historic night, and the incredible run he's on? 

Probably not. 

I just went to the following online SPORTS pages, and here were the main headlines I saw:

espn.com: "No Better Time Than Now" - Highlighting the NCAA conference tourney's, with four sub-stories titled "Champ Week", "Chicago Hope" (Bulls), "Doral Doubts" (golf), "Utley's Approach", and "Woman's Hoops".

cbssportsline.com: "De-crying game" - Yet another story about the flailing Miami Heat team.

nbcsports.com:  "Dazzle Now, Dance Big Later" - A quandary about weather the Kansas Jayhawk's winning their conference tournament is a sign of success in the "Big Dance".

sportingNews.com: This site has a panel of three top stories;
    "It's a great time of year" - North Carolina's Kendall Marshall's emergence, "at the perfect time".
    "Toxic offseason a sign of times" - Regarding Ohio State's football coach Jim Tressel's fall from grace suspension.
    "Griffin still has room to grow" - another ass kissing story about the magnificent, larger than life NBA Super-Hero, Blake Griffin.

sportsillustrated.cnn.com: "Gettin' To The Good Stuff" - Focusing on Michigan State'must-win rematch in the Big Ten tourney.

Five major online sports news outlets, and none of them headline the incredible feat of the Minnesota Timberwolves Kevin Love's historic night.

How about the five rotating headlines on nba.com? That's NBA.com.

1 - Laker's Heat rematch tonight.
2 - Erik Spoelstra communication breakdown with Bron-bron, Wade, and the rest of the over-rated Heat team.
3 - Kobe and the Lakers
4 - 'Melo and Amar'e in New York
5 - "Rarefied Air" featuring the hands-down favorite 2011 MVP Derrick Rose.


Since you wouldn't know, without actually looking for it, and since you wouldn't actually be looking for it since you wouldn't actually know without being an avid NBA fan, here it is:

Kevin Love is the Wolves second year player who is on an incredible Double-Double run. For those not in the know, it's recording double digit stats in two different categories. (points, rebounds, assist). Love recorded his 52nd such double-double in a row, to surpass Moses Malone's 51 game streak. A streak that Malone held onto for 37 years. Nobody in that time frame did it. Not Jordan, not Kobe, and certainly not any of the three swollen head amigos down in South Beach.

But it gets even better. Love wasn't even sure if he was going to play last night until about twenty minutes before tip-off. His banged up left knee wrapped in a brace, Love came out and scored 16 points and 21 rebounds, and netted his 52nd double-double with over twenty minutes left to spare in the game.

How amazing is this stat, for a 22 year old player no less? Think about this. Only nine other players have had at least 50 double-doubles in a row. Moses Malone, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Elgin Baylor, Walt Bellamy, Wilt Chamberlain, Elvin Hayes, Jerry Lucas and Bill Russell - and they are all are in the Hall of Fame.

Surely the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Online (http://www.jsonline.com/sports/) would show Kevin Love some Love, right?

Their top headline: "Marquette now has means to Madness".

Ouch!


The legacy continues tomorrow night 8:00 EST against Utah. And if you happen to be scrolling online news sites, look for Kevin Love in the NBA section, and see how far he can take this baby.



Wednesday, March 9, 2011

The beginning of a new sports commentary era...

Hello world, and welcome to my blog.

This is my attempt at entertaining the masses by whatever means necessary. Be it humor, obsessive rants, insightful thoughts, or degenerative gambling advice (take the good with the bad). But let's be honest here, it's probably more likely you'll just end up with insulting, childish behavior. We'll just have to see where it goes.

...and just in time for March Madness.