Breaking down the Dog

Why is it that so many "Big Six" conference teams make the NCAA Tournament each year, only to be upset early and often by Mid-Major teams from conferences most people filling out a bracket have never heard of?

Here's my thought as to why there are more and more upsets in the NCAA Tournament each year. And it's not so much a thought as it is pure fact.

Let's start this commentary out here...

Kentucky lost all five starters to the NBA draft last year. All underclassmen, and all drafted in the first round. So with five NBA players on the team last year, surely they must have won the NCAA Tournament, right?

Not.

A close loss in the Championship game then?

Uh, no.

In fact, they didn't even make it to the Final Four - with all that NBA talent. How is that possible?

Simply put, it comes down to experience. They just didn't have enough of it in crunch time, when it mattered most.

The biggest upset of the first round... Hell, of the entire tourney, was Morehead State taking down one of the Big East Bad Boys in Louisville. Brackets were busted and heads were scratched  from coast to coast with that one. Really? Morehead State from... what conference was that again?

Do you think it mattered that Morehead State started ALL Junior's and Seniors? Kids that have played together for three or four years? Getting to know and trust in each teammates given talent and abilities on the floor? Maybe, just maybe confidence in each other played a role.

Why was this so shocking an upset? Because really, how much media attention is focused on these piddling little Mid-Major nobodies?

But that's just a coincidence, right? Let's look at a couple other Sweet Sixteen surprises.

Richmond, a number 12 seed is packed with Juniors and Seniors, surrounding an uber-talented Freshman. Still playing.

VCU, an 11 seed, had to play into this tournament just to prove it belonged, and now finds itself in the Sweet Sixteen. What makes up their top scorers and rebounders? Four Seniors and a Junior.

Of course that doesn't explain George Mason, who starts all upperclassmen beating, Villanova sporting a good mix of all classes in the first round, but that's what makes it a true upset.

The fact is, while all the super-talented players around the country are signing on with the big game schools, in the big name conferences, who get all the big time TV deals, just to get noticed for the draft they plan on entering after their Freshman and Sophomore years, it's the pretty good to very talented kids who take a scholarship at the smaller schools and play it out for four years. They aren't guaranteed first round money, if any round at all. They play for a school they plan on graduating and getting a degree from. 

So Kentucky had to restock with another handful of talented one-and-done freshman, and they are back in the Sweet Sixteen. Probably overlooked by most was their first-round two point squeaker over Princeton, out of the mighty Ivy League. A team they very easily could have lost to. But a team that also started predominately Junior's and Seniors, with a Freshman and Sophomore thrown in.

On the other hand, the number one seed overall  is blowing through this tournament like it should be. Ohio State has Seven Junior's or Senior's on  the team, and only four Freshman. One of those Freshman leads the team in every formidable stat, but he's surrounded by players who have three or four years experience playing together.

But here's the bottom line...

If I was a betting man, I would  say Kentucky and their freshmen will stay no where close to the 6 points they are getting from Ohio State on Friday night. I might'a even dropped a larger than small fortune on the game, gladly giving up a measly 6 points. Ya know, if I was a betting man.

...but, I'm not a betting man.