Upsets are called upsets for a reason. They are not supposed to win. But as we find out year after year in the NCAA Tournament, that's just not the case. And there's no stopping it either. Upsets are happening weather you're on board or not, so the best you can do is hope to be on the right ship when it leaves the dock.
There are ways however, to at least improve your odds of picking correctly. There are ways to give yourself a better edge when mucking over which dog will win, and which dog will bust your bracket. Hopefully the latter isn't the case, unless you're picking the UC Santa Barbara Goucho's to make a final four run. The idea is to pick an underdog without having that dog bite you in the ass. That happens when the upset you picked not only loses, but the team you picked against ends up making a nice run through it's region.
As you probably already know, a number 16 seed has never beaten a number 1 seed in the history of the tourney. So don't even bother trying that one. And a number 15 seed has only shocked a 2 seed four times. So again, don't waste an upset pick here. It could happen, but there is no sense in blowing your bracket for those odds. In fact, don't even think about picking an upset seed lower than a 14 over a 3 seed, and only then if the match-up looks juicy enough.
You wont usually find many 14 seeds worthy of an upset pick in your pool, but every now and then one sneaks in... And this happens to be one of those years.
Also, there really is no such thing as an upset when an 8 and 9 seed play. Technically an upset is the team who Vegas has favored to win, not where the NCAA Selection Committee slates them. So it is fairly common for an 9 seed to be favored over an 8 seed, and even an occasional 10 over a 7.
It's also pretty common for at least one 12 seed to knock off a 5 seed each year, so that is a great place to start looking for your pup.
Here's some tips on how to tell if the match-up has the potential for an upset.
How is the guard play?
What are the mix of the starters? All Seniors or Freshman?
Do they score over 70 points per game consistently?
How many players have tournament experience?
Does the coach have any tournament experience, and how did he fair when he was there?
How good is the team they are planning to upset?
What does Vegas think?
These are the match-ups with potential upsets:
Florida State #10 vs. Texas A&M #7
Penn State #10 vs. Temple #7
Michigan State #10 vs. UCLA #7
Georgia #10 vs. Washington #7
Gonzaga #11 vs. St. John's #6
Missouri #11 vs. Cincinnati #6
Marquette #11 vs. Xavier #6
VCU / USC #11 vs. Georgetown #6
Clemson #12 vs. West Virginia #5
Richmond #12 vs. Vanderbilt #5
Memphis #12 vs. Arizona #5
Richmond #12 vs. Vanderbilt #5
Princeton #13 vs. Kentucky #4
Belmont #13 vs. Wisconsin #4
Oakland #13 vs. Texas #4
Morehead State #13 vs. Louisville #4
Wofford #14 vs. Brigham Young #3
Bucknell #14 vs. Connecticut #3
St. Peter's #14 vs. Purdue #3
Indiana State #14 vs. Syracuse #3
Here are the potential dog teams that averaging over 70 points per game:
Gonzaga: 76.7
Missouri: 81.4
Marquette: 76.1
VCU: 71.5
Richmond: 70.2
Belmont: 80.4
Oakland: 85.6
Wofford: 73.8
Bucknell: 7.8
Note, Wofford and Bucknell are #14 seeds, but both have a legitimate chance of an upset. Particularly Wofford.
Consider this:
Wofford is returning all five starters from last year. A team that, as a 13 seed last year went to the NCAA tourney and came within two points of upsetting #4 Wisconsin.
They also have three players who shoot the three-ball well, at a combined .407 clip.
Oh, and just to add some meat to that juice, they are playing a BYU team that has lost two of their last three games after dismissing starting Forward Brandon Davies from the team for an "honor code violation". Davies was the leading rebounder and second in points to Fredette.
It's tough to pick against the second leading scorer in the country and all around fantastic player in Jimmer Fredette, but if you don't think BYU is going to go very far, you might consider looking like a Tournament God to everyone who sees your Wofford upset.
What was that "honor code violation" Davies broke you ask? Did he steal laptops, get a DUI, or beat up his girlfriend? Nope. His violation was for admitting he had premarital sex with his girlfriend.
Those silly Mormons.
There are ways however, to at least improve your odds of picking correctly. There are ways to give yourself a better edge when mucking over which dog will win, and which dog will bust your bracket. Hopefully the latter isn't the case, unless you're picking the UC Santa Barbara Goucho's to make a final four run. The idea is to pick an underdog without having that dog bite you in the ass. That happens when the upset you picked not only loses, but the team you picked against ends up making a nice run through it's region.
As you probably already know, a number 16 seed has never beaten a number 1 seed in the history of the tourney. So don't even bother trying that one. And a number 15 seed has only shocked a 2 seed four times. So again, don't waste an upset pick here. It could happen, but there is no sense in blowing your bracket for those odds. In fact, don't even think about picking an upset seed lower than a 14 over a 3 seed, and only then if the match-up looks juicy enough.
You wont usually find many 14 seeds worthy of an upset pick in your pool, but every now and then one sneaks in... And this happens to be one of those years.
Also, there really is no such thing as an upset when an 8 and 9 seed play. Technically an upset is the team who Vegas has favored to win, not where the NCAA Selection Committee slates them. So it is fairly common for an 9 seed to be favored over an 8 seed, and even an occasional 10 over a 7.
It's also pretty common for at least one 12 seed to knock off a 5 seed each year, so that is a great place to start looking for your pup.
Here's some tips on how to tell if the match-up has the potential for an upset.
How is the guard play?
What are the mix of the starters? All Seniors or Freshman?
Do they score over 70 points per game consistently?
How many players have tournament experience?
Does the coach have any tournament experience, and how did he fair when he was there?
How good is the team they are planning to upset?
What does Vegas think?
These are the match-ups with potential upsets:
Florida State #10 vs. Texas A&M #7
Penn State #10 vs. Temple #7
Michigan State #10 vs. UCLA #7
Georgia #10 vs. Washington #7
Gonzaga #11 vs. St. John's #6
Missouri #11 vs. Cincinnati #6
Marquette #11 vs. Xavier #6
VCU / USC #11 vs. Georgetown #6
Clemson #12 vs. West Virginia #5
Richmond #12 vs. Vanderbilt #5
Memphis #12 vs. Arizona #5
Richmond #12 vs. Vanderbilt #5
Princeton #13 vs. Kentucky #4
Belmont #13 vs. Wisconsin #4
Oakland #13 vs. Texas #4
Morehead State #13 vs. Louisville #4
Wofford #14 vs. Brigham Young #3
Bucknell #14 vs. Connecticut #3
St. Peter's #14 vs. Purdue #3
Indiana State #14 vs. Syracuse #3
Here are the potential dog teams that averaging over 70 points per game:
Gonzaga: 76.7
Missouri: 81.4
Marquette: 76.1
VCU: 71.5
Richmond: 70.2
Belmont: 80.4
Oakland: 85.6
Wofford: 73.8
Bucknell: 7.8
Note, Wofford and Bucknell are #14 seeds, but both have a legitimate chance of an upset. Particularly Wofford.
Consider this:
Wofford is returning all five starters from last year. A team that, as a 13 seed last year went to the NCAA tourney and came within two points of upsetting #4 Wisconsin.
They also have three players who shoot the three-ball well, at a combined .407 clip.
Oh, and just to add some meat to that juice, they are playing a BYU team that has lost two of their last three games after dismissing starting Forward Brandon Davies from the team for an "honor code violation". Davies was the leading rebounder and second in points to Fredette.
It's tough to pick against the second leading scorer in the country and all around fantastic player in Jimmer Fredette, but if you don't think BYU is going to go very far, you might consider looking like a Tournament God to everyone who sees your Wofford upset.
What was that "honor code violation" Davies broke you ask? Did he steal laptops, get a DUI, or beat up his girlfriend? Nope. His violation was for admitting he had premarital sex with his girlfriend.
Those silly Mormons.
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