Tuesday, March 15, 2011

The Maddening Madness of March - How to win your pool

Every sports outlet in the country, online or in print, is overflowing with March Madness. Brackets, predictions, stats, records and the like, all at your fingertips. From coaches, ex-coaches, players and ex-players, sports writers and commentators, telling you who to pick, who's going to upset who, and how to keep your bracket from imploding on you in the first week.

So why would you want to read about it here? Why take my advice?

Because unlike them, I actually have to dig into my wallet and fork over the twenty to fifty dollar entry fees it takes to play this, the greatest tournament on Earth. I also don't get paid for playing it safe and picking Ohio State to win it all, just so I don't make my network look bad.

Sure, Ohio State is the odds on favorite to win the National title, and there's a pretty good chance that they will win. So why not pick them?

Because it's likely that 40% of your pool-mates also picked Ohio State to win it all. And if they do, good luck coming up with enough points to pull ahead of them before the Championship game.

Nope. Here is what you need to do to give yourself a chance to win the money, prize or bragging rights. Whatever it is you're playing for.

Find a team that is good enough to beat anyone on any given night; SIX times. And no, Princeton is not one of those teams.

The Big East is highly considered the best conference in the country, and have eleven teams representing in the tournament. They have played against the best competition all year long. Unfortunately, they always tend to beat each other up along the grueling way.

The Big Ten and Big Twelve are also highly rated conferences and each have a few teams capable of beating anyone on a given night.

Stay as far away from the Pac-10, the SEC (except Kentucky) and Mid Majors as you can. While they are all good for first and second round upsets, don't get Bracket Buster happy and put Oakland into your final four... or final eight for that matter. And don't look at Florida as a deserving number two seed either. Like San Diego State, they will be bowing out of this tourney very early. As soon as this weekend perhaps.

Look for teams with exceptional guard play. They can carry your team far and keep them alive late in the game.

The main goal here is to pick a team that is capable and has a chance of winning it all. Not necessarily a great chance, but with enough talent and experience to squeak out a couple of tough ones. Teams that seem to be peaking at the right time. Nobody is peaking more than Connecticut right now after their incredible run through the Big East Tournament, but you still need to keep in mind that they lost four out of five games before that exciting run.

Kentucky is a very young team. All five starters were drafted to the NBA last year, but they do have plenty of talent and are peaking at the right time as well, and looking pronominal in doing so.

You also need to keep in mind the people in which your pool is being filled. Pick a team outside your geographical area if possible. If you are in the Southwest, you might be in Longhorn country and end up with an exceeding amount of pool members picking Texas.

Here is a short list of teams I believe are capable of winning it all. Try getting as many of these into your final eight and final four, and you should be in good shape by the end of the tournament.

Most people will be taking Ohio State and Kansas to win it all, with a fair amount on Texas and Pitt. If you go with these schools, you'll run the risk of getting behind in points and not being able to catch up. But, that's your call. You also get to look like a genius when you're the only one picking Louisville to win the title... and they do!

Big East
Pittsburgh
Louisville
Connecticut
Notre Dame

Big Ten
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin

Big 12
Kansas
Texas
Texas A&M
Kansas St

ACC
Duke
North Carolina

SEC
Kentucky


Good luck in your pools, and be sure to come back and criticize me if I'm wrong. Or mad props me if I'm right.




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